In the case that the
observations are statistically independent according to both
models, Stein's Lemma states that the false-alarm probabilityresulting from using the Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test has the
form
(Johnson and Orsak)
or
where
is a slowly varying function compared to the
exponential:
. This function is problem- and
-dependent, and thus usually not
known. What this asymptotic formula says is that as the numberof observations increases, the false-alarm probability of a
Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test plotted on semilogarithmiccoordinates will eventually become a straight line, the slope of
which is
.
demonstrates this effect.
A similar result holds for the miss probability if it is
optimized and the false-alarm probability is constrained. Thus,in
all model evaluation problems solved
using the Neyman-Pearson approach, the optimized probabilitywill always (eventually) decay exponentially in the number of
observations. For this reason,
is known as the
exponential rate .
Showing this result relies on, believe it or not, the law of
large numbers. Define the decision region
according to
This decision region will vary with the number of
observations as is typical of Neyman-Pearson decision rules.First of all, we must show that the decision rule this region
yields does indeed satisfy a criterion on the miss probability.
This sum is the average of the likelihood ratios
computed at each observation assuming that
is true. Because of the strong law of large numbers,
as the number of observations increases, this sum converges toits expected value, which is
. Therefore,
for any
, which
means
. Thus, this decision region guarantees not only that
the miss probability is less than some specified number, butalso that it decreases systematically as the number ofobservations increases.
To analyze how the false-alarm probability varies with
, we note that in this decision
region
Integrating these over
yields upper and lower bounds on
.
or
Because
can be made arbitrarily small as the number of
observations increases, we obtain Stein's Lemma.
For the average probability of error, the Chernoff distance is
its exponential rate.
Showing this result leads to more interesting results.
For the minimum-probability-of-error detector, the decisionregion
is defined according to
. Using this fact, we can write the expression for
as
The minimum function has the property
,
for non-negative quantities
and
.
To see this, simply plot the
minimum function versus one of its argument with the other onefixed. Plotting
the same way shows that it indeed is an upper
bound.
With this bound, we can find an upper bound for
the average error probability.
When
has statistically independent and identically
distributed components,
Consequently, we have that
Asymptotically, this bound is tight (Gaussian example shows this
to be true). Thus, the exponential rate for the averageprobability of error is the minimum of this bound with respect
to
. This quantity is the negative of the Chernoff
distance
and we arrive at the
expression for the average probability of error.
The Kullback-Leibler and Chernoff distances are related in an
important way. Define
to be
, where
is the normalization constant and the quantity
optimized in the definition of the Chernoff distance. TheChernoff distance equals the Kullback-Leibler distance between
the
equi-distant from
and
. Call the value of
corresponding to this equi-distant distribution
; this value corresponds to the result of the
optimization and
shows that the exponential rates of
minimum
and Neyman-Pearson hypothesis tests are not
necessarily the same. In other words, the distance to theequi-distant distribution need not equal the total distance,
which seems to make sense.
The larger the distance, the greater the rate at which the error
probability decreases, which corresponds to an easier problem(smaller error probabilities). However, Stein's Lemma does not
allow a precise calculation of error probabilities. Thequantity
depends heavily on the underlying probability
distributions in ways that are problem dependent. All adistance calculation gives us is the exponential rate.
For the Gaussian example we have been considering, set the
miss probability's criterion value to be
. Because
, we find the threshold value
to be
, which yields a false-alarm probability of
The Kullback-Leibler distance between two Gaussians
and
equals
In this Gaussian case the Kullback-Leibler distance is
symmetric:
. Verify this atypical (most cases are asymmetric)
result for yourself. The Chernoff distance equals
(the value of
is
). Stein's Lemma predicts that the false-alarm
probability has the asymptotic form
. Thus, does
, where
is slowly varying compare to the exponential?
An
asymptotic
formula for
is
As
increases, so does the argument of
in the expression for the false-alarm probability.
Thus
The quantity multiplying the final exponential corresponds to
, which satisfies the slowly varying property. We
have verified Stein's Lemma prediction for the asymptoticbehavior of the false-alarm probability in the Gaussian case.
Note how the criterion value
occurs only in the expression for
, and hence does
not affect the
exponential rate; Stein's Lemma says this situation alwaysoccurs.