16.5 Balance of trade concerns

In the 1950s and 1960s, and even into the 1970s, openness to global flows of goods, services, and financial capital was often viewed in a negative light by low- and middle-income countries. These countries feared that foreign trade would mean both economic losses as their economy was “exploited” by high-income trading partners and a loss of domestic political control to powerful business interests and multinational corporations.

These negative feelings about international trade have evolved. After all, the great economic success stories of recent years like Japan, the East Asian Tiger economies, China, and India, all took advantage of opportunities to sell in global markets. The economies of Europe thrive with high levels of trade. In the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) , the United States, Canada, and Mexico pledged themselves to reduce trade barriers. Many countries have clearly learned that reducing barriers to trade is at least potentially beneficial to the economy. Indeed, many smaller economies of the world have learned an even tougher lesson: if they do not participate actively in world trade, they are unlikely to join the success stories among the converging economies. There are no examples in world history of small economies that remained apart from the global economy but still attained a high standard of living.

Although almost every country now claims that its goal is to participate in global trade, the possible negative consequences have remained highly controversial. It is useful to divide up these possible negative consequences into issues involving trade of goods and services and issues involving flows of international capital. These issues are related, but not the same. An economy may have a high level of trade in goods and services relative to GDP, but if exports and imports are balanced, the net flow of foreign investment in and out of the economy will be zero. Conversely, an economy may have only a moderate level of trade relative to GDP, but find that it has a substantial current account trade imbalance. Thus, it is useful to consider the concerns over international trade of goods and services and international flows of financial capital separately.

Concerns over international trade in goods and services

There is a long list of worries about foreign trade in goods and services: fear of job loss, environmental dangers, unfair labor practices, and many other concerns. These arguments are discussed at some length in The International Trade and Capital Flows .

Of all of the arguments for limitations on trade, perhaps the most controversial one among economists is the infant industry argument ; that is, subsidizing or protecting new industries for a time until they become established. ( Globalization and Protectionism explains this concept in more detail.) Such policies have been used with some success at certain points in time, but in the world as a whole, support for key industries is far more often directed at long-established industries with substantial political power that are suffering losses and laying off workers, rather than potentially vibrant new industries that have yet to be established. If government is going to favor certain industries, it needs to do so in a way that is temporary and that orients them toward a future of market competition, rather than a future of unending government subsidies and trade protection.