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In our initial statement of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma, we assumed that for all , the set had probability zero under . This eliminated many important problems from consideration, including tests of discrete data.In this section we remove this restriction.
It is helpful to introduce a more general way of
writing decision rules. Let
be a function of the data
with
.
defines the
decision rule "declare
with probability
." In other words, upon observing
, we flip a
"
coin." If it turns up heads, we declare
; otherwise we declare
. Thus far, we have only considered rules with
Consider the hypothesis testing problem
where
and
are both pdfs or both pmfs. Let
be the size (false-alarm probability)
constraint. The decision rule
is the most powerful test of size
, where
and
are uniquely determined by requiring
. If
, we take
,
. This test is unique up to sets of probability
zero under
and
.Neyman-pearson lemma
Suppose we have a friend who is trying to transmit a bit (0 or 1) to us over a noisy channel. Thechannel causes an error in the transmission (that is, the bit is flipped) with probability , where , and is known. In order to increase the chance of a successful transmission,our friend sends the same bit times. Assume the transmissions are statistically independent. Under these assumptions, the bitsyou receive are Bernoulli random variables: . We are faced with the following hypothesis test: We decide to decode the received sequence by designing a Neyman-Pearson rule. The likelihood ratio is
The corresponding detection probability is
Design a hypothesis testing problem involving continous random variables such that for certain values of . Write down the false-alarm probability as a function of thethreshold. Make as general a statement as possible about when the technical condition is satisfied.
Consider the scalar hypothesis testing problem where
Write down the likelihood ratio test.
Determine the decision regions as a function of for all . Draw a representative of each. What are the "critical" values of ?
Compute the size and power ( and ) in terms of the threshold and plot the ROC.
Suppose we decide to use a simple threshold test instead of the Neyman-Pearson rule. Does our performance suffer much? Plot the ROC for this decision rule on the same graph as for the previous ROC.
Suppose we observe independent realizations of a Poisson random variable with intensity parameter : We must decide which of two intensities is in effect: where .
Write down the likelihood ratio test.
Simplify the LRT to a test statistic involving only a sufficient statistic. Apply a monotonicallyincreasing transformation to simplify further.
Determine the distribution of the sufficient statistic under both hypotheses.
Derive an expression for the probability of error.
Assuming the two hypotheses are equally likely, and and , what is the minimum number of observations needed to attain a false-alarm probability no greater than0.01?
In , suppose . What is the smallest value of needed to ensure ? What is in this case?
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