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Central Limit Theorem: Using the Central Limit Theorem is part of the collection col10555 written by Barbara Illowsky and Susan Dean. It covers how and when to use the Central Limit Theorem and has contributions from Roberta Bloom.

It is important for you to understand when to use the CLT . If you are being asked to find the probability of the mean, use the CLT for the mean. If youare being asked to find the probability of a sum or total, use the CLT for sums. This also applies to percentiles for means and sums.

If you are being asked to find the probability of an individual value, do not use the CLT. Use the distribution of its random variable.

Examples of the central limit theorem

Law of Large Numbers

The Law of Large Numbers says that if you take samples of larger and larger size from any population, then the mean x of the sample tends to get closer and closer to μ . From the Central Limit Theorem, we know that as n gets larger and larger, the sample means follow a normal distribution. The larger n gets, the smaller thestandard deviation gets. (Remember that the standard deviation for X is σ n .) This means that the sample mean x must be close to the population mean μ . We can say that μ is the value that the sample means approach as n gets larger. The Central Limit Theorem illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

Central Limit Theorem for the Mean and Sum Examples

A study involving stress is done on a college campus among the students. The stress scores follow a uniform distribution with the lowest stress score equal to 1 and the highest equal to 5. Using a sample of 50 students, find:

  1. The probability that the mean stress score for the 50 students is less than 2.65.
  2. The probability that the total of the 50 stress scores is more than 175.

Let X = one stress score.

Problems 1. asks you to find a probability for a mean . Problems 2. asks you to find a probability for a total or sum . The sample size, n , is equal to 50.

Since the individual stress scores follow a uniform distribution, X ~ U ( 1 , 5 ) where a = 1 and b = 5 (See Continuous Random Variables for the uniform).

μ X = a + b 2 = 1 + 5 2 = 3

σ X = ( b - a ) 2 12 = ( 5 - 1 ) 2 12 = 1.15

For problems 1., let X = the mean stress score for the 50 students. Then,

X ~ N ( 3 , 1.15 50 ) where n = 50 .

Find P ( x 2.65 ) . Draw the graph.

P ( x 2.65 ) = 0.0158

The probability that the mean stress score is lessthan 2.65 is about 1.6%.

Normal distribution curve for the average with values of 2 and 3 on the x-axis. A vertical upward line extends from point 2 up to the curve. The probability area occurs from the beginning of the curve to point 2.

The smallest stress score is 1. Therefore, the smallest mean for 50 stress scores is 1.

This problem is also worked out in a Two Column Model Step by Step Example. This model is in the next section of this chapter. This is the model that we will use in class, for homework, and for the statistics project.

For problem 2., let ΣX = the sum of the 50 stress scores. Then, ΣX ~ N [ ( 50 ) ( 3 ) , 50 1.15 ]

Find P ( Σx > 175 ) . Draw the graph.

The mean of the sum of 50 stress scores is 50 3 = 150

The standard deviation of thesum of 50 stress scores is 50 1.15 = 8.1317

P ( Σx 175 ) = 0.0011

Normal distribution curve of the sum x with values of 200 and 225 on the x-axis. A vertical upward line extends from point 200 to the curve. The probability area begins from the beginning of the curve to point 200.

The probability that the total of 50 scores is greater than 175 is about 0.

The smallest total of 50 stress scores is 50 since the smallest single score is 1.

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Source:  OpenStax, Collaborative statistics using spreadsheets. OpenStax CNX. Jan 05, 2016 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11521/1.23
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