0.44 Population growth and regulation enbio  (Page 2/17)

The value of r can be positive, meaning the population is increasing in size (the rate of change is positive); or negative, meaning the population is decreasing in size; or zero, in which case the population size is unchanging, a condition known as zero population growth    .

Logistic growth

Extended exponential growth is possible only when infinite natural resources are available; this is not the case in the real world. Charles Darwin recognized this fact in his description of the “struggle for existence,” which states that individuals will compete (with members of their own or other species) for limited resources. The successful ones are more likely to survive and pass on the traits that made them successful to the next generation at a greater rate (natural selection). To model the reality of limited resources, population ecologists developed the logistic growth    model.

Carrying capacity and the logistic model

In the real world, with its limited resources, exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely. Exponential growth may occur in environments where there are few individuals and plentiful resources, but when the number of individuals gets large enough, resources will be depleted and the growth rate will slow down. Eventually, the growth rate will plateau or level off ( [link] b ). This population size, which is determined by the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain, is called the carrying capacity    , or K . In real populations, a growing population often overshoots its carrying capacity, and the death rate increases beyond the birth rate causing the population size to decline back to the carrying capacity or below it. Most populations usually fluctuate around the carrying capacity in an undulating fashion rather than existing right at it.

The formula used to calculate logistic growth adds the carrying capacity as a moderating force in the growth rate. The expression “ K – N ” is equal to the number of individuals that may be added to a population at a given time, and “ K – N ” divided by “ K ” is the fraction of the carrying capacity available for further growth. Thus, the exponential growth model is restricted by this factor to generate the logistic growth equation:

Notice that when N is almost zero the quantity in brackets is almost equal to 1 (or K / K ) and growth is close to exponential. When the population size is equal to the carrying capacity, or N = K , the quantity in brackets is equal to zero and growth is equal to zero. A graph of this equation (logistic growth) yields the S-shaped curve ( [link] b ). It is a more realistic model of population growth than exponential growth. There are three different sections to an S-shaped curve. Initially, growth is exponential because there are few individuals and ample resources available. Then, as resources begin to become limited, the growth rate decreases. Finally, the growth rate levels off at the carrying capacity of the environment, with little change in population number over time.