0.2 Historic perspectives: economic and population growth  (Page 9/10)

Fertility trends interact closely with per capita income growth, life expectancy and education. Comparing a country's total fertility rate with the United Nation Human Development Index (HDI) testifies to the interaction.

The HDI Index has 3 components:

1. Income per capita
2. Life expectancy
3. Level of education

We note that the value of fertility rates comes at about 0.80 on the HDI index. Many of the factors affecting fertility may now be better understood thanks to the ambitious and successful efforts by the World Bank and the U.N. to compile data on, not only population growth, but also education and trade.

The proportion of girls in secondary school significantly effects fertility, as depicted in Figure 2-5 .

Growth that elevates people out of poverty plays an important role as well. See Figure 2-6 .

However, even though fertility has been sharply declining worldwide, world population, especially in emerging nations, will continue to grow for a few more decades, even if worldwide fertility rates were to fall to the replacement rate (2-1 children per female).

This will be because of the momentum factor, which is due to the fact that today's children outnumber their parents because of past high (but declining) fertility, will become tomorrows' parents. For a full examination of the momentum factor, see Dwight H. Perkins, Steven Radelet&David L. Lindauer (2006), Economics of Development (6 ^th edition), New York, NY: W.W. Norton&Co. This pattern is starkly evident in Vietnam, where the percent of the population aged 30 and less is almost double that of the population cohort above age 50. In Vietnam and many Latin American nations, for example more and more young people born in the past two decades are beginning to enter their reproductive years. This group is expected to account for 80% of the world population growth over the next few decades.

My own view, based on almost fifty years of research and service in emerging nations, is that there are five prime factors in the recent striking decline in fertility in developing nations:

1. Rising female participation in the labor force. Where this has not occurred, as in Saudi Arabia, fertility rates remain very high. (Note: Rising female participation in labor force is both a cause and a consequence of economic growth.)
2. Rising levels of educational attainment , especially for women, has greatly affected fertility in developing nations. This too is both a cause and a consequence of rising economic growth.
   Higher levels of primary and secondary schooling leads to more informed choices about everything, including reproduction.
   Also higher female participation in labor force.
3. Economic growth and development itself (higher economic growth rates) have clearly led to declining fertility rates.
   Why? Because growth in per capita income causes higher income families to have less need for children to provide income and especially support old age.
4. Family planning programs especially in Asia and most of Africa have greatly increased the availability of various contraceptives, especially condoms (except in places such as Niger, where the lack of adoption of readily available contraceptives has kept fertility rates very high). Elsewhere, women in families who wish to limit family size can now much more easily access contraceptives.
5. Increasing urbanization. This factor is becoming increasingly more important in fertility decline. Consider what has been happening in urbanization especially in emerging nations.