0.18 Natural capital: water  (Page 8/11)

Climate change and water availabilities

The consensus of conclusions from climate change models is clearly for future increases in surface air temperature in the next few decades. Higher surface temperatures will increase the frequency of days involving extreme temperature. One result will be increased evaporation from lakes, ponds, and soils, reducing water availability and intensifying droughts that develop naturally. The Academy of Medicine, Engineering and Science of Texas, 2014 Texas Water Summit Report, Austin, Texas, p.4.

This newer threat to world water supplies is developing at a time when supplies are already under stress from political conflict, periodic droughts worldwide, depletion of aquifers, contamination of groundwater sedimentation, and of course deep underpricing of water.

Figure 18-4 presents a synopsis of the vulnerability of global water resources due to climate change and many of the other factors cited just above.

Sustainable use of water

What of the future? As usual, must be made with great care. Indeed some have described economics as a discipline whose practitioners have predicted eight out of the last five recessions.

OR as famed New York baseball player Yogi Berra once said:

“Making predictions is perilous, particularly predictions about the future.”

The author ordinarily refrains from predictions but here are two:

1. Water: Fresh water will be an extremely coveted resource in the 21 ^st century. People who find profitable ways to conserve and optimize on water use will make a lot of money and at the same time save a lot of human and animal lives in the process.
2. In the 21 ^st Century more armed conflicts will be fought over access to fresh water then conflicts over religion.

For hundreds of years, societies and economics have paid scant attention to sustainable use of water. In economics 40 short years ago, students were even taught in principle courses the “ water-diamond paradox ,” to explain why diamonds are expensive and water is cheap.

The paradox: water is much more “ useful than diamonds but diamonds are expensive because they are scarce; water is free – or – very cheap, because it is “plentiful”. As a result, many generations grew up thinking water as a “ free good .

The consequences were disastrous - water was priced at next to nothing per unit, and consequently has been wasted in profligate fashion.

By 2009, the issue of sustainable use of water was at least as important to the world as sustainable use of energy or forests. And for emerging nations, the matter is even more serious, as we have seen, owning to three factors:

1. Continued population growth due to the momentum factor in emerging nations, even though fertility rates have slowed greatly since 1970.
2. Continued economic growth in emerging countries, even if real rates of growth of only 2-3% materialize.
3. One consequence of the first two factors for changes in diet in emerging nations will create steadily growing stress on freshwater supplies through their effect on diets as population grows and economic growth continues.