0.18 First order effects

First order effects

Introduction

The various components of earth's systems interact with one another through the flow of matter and energy. For example, mass (carbon dioxide and oxygen gases) is exchanged between the biosphere and atmosphere during plant photosynthesis. Gases move across the ocean-atmosphere interface. Bacteria in the soil decompose wastes, providing nutrients for plants and returning gases to the atmosphere. Furthermore, studies of Antarctic and Greenland ice cores show a correlation between abrupt climate changes and storm activities in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans during historical times. All of these processes are linked by natural cycles established over billions of years of the earth's history.

Humans have only been present for a tiny fraction of earth's history, and for much of that time their presence had little impact on the global environment. However, in recent history, the human population has grown and developed to the point where it is no longer a relatively passive presence in earth's systems. People have greatly increased their use of air, water, land and other natural resources during the last 200 years. Their industrial and agricultural activities have affected the atmosphere, the water cycle, and the climate. Each year large quantities of carbon dioxide and pollutants are added to the atmosphere and water systems due to fossil fuel burning and industrial processes. Ecological systems have been altered as well. The size of natural ecosystems has shrunk as people increase their use of the land. Plants and animals have been changed by human agricultural practices. Clearly humans are changing the global environment and climate. What is unclear is whether earth's systems can adjust to these changes.

Atmosphere

The earth is much like a big greenhouse. Energy, in the form of sunlight, passes through its atmosphere, though the clouds, water and land reflect some of that energy back into space, some sunlight is absorbed, converted to heat and radiated back into the atmosphere as infrared radiation. Much of this infrared radiation is absorbed by atmospheric carbon dioxide and other gases rather than radiated into space. The process is similar to that of a greenhouse, with infrared-absorbing gases such as carbon dioxide and methane acting as panes of glass to trap the infrared heat. For this reason, these gases are known as greenhouse gases . The net result of this process is that the atmosphere is warmed.

For more than a century, scientists have pondered the possible effects that change in the amounts of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide would have on the earth's climate. One notable theory that has arisen from this is that of the greenhouse effect . According to this theory, if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases, then the atmosphere will trap more and more heat. This could cause the earth's mean surface temperature to rise over time. Concerns over possible climate effects led to efforts to monitor carbon dioxide levels. Monitoring began in the late 1950's, with monitoring stations being set up in Alaska, Antarctica and Hawaii.