0.17 Energy: global warming change  (Page 4/8)

There have been repeated warnings from the U.N. Some climate specialists believe that limiting emissions to 42 billion metric tons annually by 2030 and further limiting emissions to 22 billion tons by 2050, would allow the world to stay within the 2° centigrade “tipping point. The U.N. considers this limit to be ineffective in holding warming to 2° centigrade. United Nations Enviromental Program, The Emission Gap Report 2014. According to the U.N. Undersecretary for the Environment, “The time window for reaching the 2° level is closing, closing, and the costs of getting to that goal is increasing, increasing”.

Those who forecast catastrophe are essentially saying that unchecked, global warming could eventually lead to an environmental GOTTERDAMMERUNG, a word made prominent in Richard Wagner’s last opera in his Ring Series in 1876. Gotterdammerung is a translation into German of an Old Norse phrase: Bagnarök, which in Norse mythology refers to a war between the gods that brings about the end of the world and its later renewal. Basically Gotterdammerung means when “all hell breaks loose”.

Whatever the cause, global climate change has become a serious problem for the whole world, and the consensus is clearly that human activity is the leading cause.

Effects of climate change

The potential consequences for poorer nations look to be even more serious than for rich nations. It may widen income gaps between rich and poor nations because of the differential effects of higher temperatures. According to the World Bank, emerging nations will bear the brunt of the effects of climate change, World Bank, World Development Report: Development and Climate Change, Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2010, p.xiii. specifically that they would bear 75% to 80% of the costs of damages caused by changing climate.

Data for nearly 140 countries from 1950-2008 suggest that higher temperatures would have negative effects on growth in poor countries, but not so much rich ones. Estimates of effects vary. A recent NBER study Dell M., Jones B.F., Olken B.A. 2008. Climate Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 14132. Available at www.nber.org/papers/w14132. finds that a temperature increase of 1° Celsius would mean a decline in world per capita GDP or 8.5%. Still another recent study of emerging nations alone arrives at the much less pessimistic conclusion that a 1oC increase in surface temperature would lead to reductions of only 1% in per capita GDP. “The Weather Report”, The Economist , January 18, 2014, p.76. Finally, the World Bank estimates that even with 2°C warming, the minimum the world is likely to expect, could result in permanent reduction in GDP for Africa and South Asia. World Bank, op.cit. pp.XX. How might high temperatures reduce growth rate in poorer nations?

1. Lower crop yields in the tropics, but likely not in temperate zones.
2. Resurgence of tropical diseases and Northern migration such as malaria and yellow fever.
3. Sea level rise flooding Bangladesh, Maldives, parts of Coasts of India, Thailand, and other low lying areas.