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Beginning in the 1990s, a few astronomers began to analyze the cosmic impact hazard and to persuade the government to support a search for potentially hazardous asteroids. Several small but sophisticated wide-field telescopes are now used for this search, which is called the NASA Spaceguard Survey. Already we know that there are currently no asteroids on a collision course with Earth that are as big (10–15 kilometers) as the one that killed the dinosaurs. The Spaceguard Survey now concentrates on finding smaller potential impactors. By 2015, the search had netted more than 15,000 near-Earth-asteroids, including most of those larger than 1 kilometer. None of those discovered so far poses any danger to us. Of course, we cannot make a similar statement about the asteroids that have not yet been discovered, but these will be found and evaluated one by one for their potential hazard. These asteroid surveys are one of the few really life-and-death projects carried out by astronomers, with a potential to help to save our planet from future major impacts.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects such as asteroids and comets. It is a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value.
Purdue University’s “Impact: Earth” calculator lets you input the characteristics of an approaching asteroid to determine the effect of its impact on our planet.
Earth, like the Moon and other planets, has been influenced by the impacts of cosmic debris, including such recent examples as Meteor Crater and the Tunguska explosion. Larger past impacts are implicated in some mass extinctions, including the large impact 65 million years ago at the end of the Cretaceous period that wiped out the dinosaurs and many other species. Today, astronomers are working to predict the next impact in advance, while other scientists are coming to grips with the effect of impacts on the evolution and diversity of life on Earth.
Collins, W., et al. “The Physical Science behind Climate Change.” Scientific American (August 2007): 64. Why scientists are now confident that human activities are changing our planet’s climate.
Glatzmaier, G.,&Olson, P. “Probing the Geodynamo.” Scientific American (April 2005): 50. Experiments and modeling that tell us about the source and reversals of Earth’s magnetic field.
Gurnis, M. “Sculpting the Earth from Inside Out.” Scientific American (March 2001): 40. On motions that lift and lower the continents.
Hartmann, W. “Piecing Together Earth’s Early History.” Astronomy (June 1989): 24.
Jewitt, D.,&Young, E. “Oceans from the Skies.” Scientific American (March 2015): 36. How did Earth get its water after its initial hot period?
Boslaugh, M. “In Search of Death-Plunge Asteroids.” Astronomy ( July 2015): 28. On existing and proposed programs to search for earth-crossing asteroids.
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